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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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