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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.