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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.