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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."